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LAKERS @ SUNS
November 22, 2022
7:00 PM PST
We have good value in the NBA tonight as the Lakers take on the Phoenix Suns.
We look to Suns center Deandre Ayton. His prop lines are as follows: O/U 15.5 points, O/U 9.5 rebounds, and O/U 2.5 assists. With Chris Paul not playing, some bettors may think Ayton has less value without a distributor, but we see it the other way around. They need Ayton to score more in the post and control the game on the blocks. Ayton has really picked up his rebounding lately, averaging 10/game over the past 4 games. He’ll be facing a team that is ranked 27th in defensive rebounding. They key tonight is the matchup. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have enough size to compete on the glass with Ayton as Anthony Davis is playing the 5 position this season. In the last three matchups with the Lakers Ayton has gone for 22 pts & 13 boards, 23 pts & 16 boards, and 19 pts & 11 boards. His production against this roster comes easily and oddsmakers see that, posting his total PRA (points, rebounds, assists) O/U at 27.5. When we trend defense by position, it is clear that the Lakers lack a force down low. They are the 3rd worst team in the NBA at defending the center position, allowing 23 pts, 17 rebounds, and 4 assists/game to the opposing centers.
He will feast tonight – take Deandre Ayton OVER 27.5 points, rebounds, and assists.