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MAVS – WARRIORS
February 4, 2023
Line: Warriors -10.5, O/U 226.5
LOOKING TO STAY HOT ON THE FREE SIDE OF THE HOUSE, 8 WINS – 2 LOSSES IN OUR LAST 10 FREE SELECTIONS!
We look to stay hot in the NBA with tonight’s primetime matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. Oddsmakers have the Warriors listed as 10-point favorites with the
O/U at 226.5 points.
We like this to go under and here’s why.
For starters, the Mavericks are ranked 24th in the NBA in PPG and will struggle mightily tonight missing key pieces. The Mavs will possibly be without their top 3 scorers this season. Luka Doncic & Christian Wood are both listed as out and PG Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable. They simply will not have enough playmaking to keep pace with Golden State tonight as these three account for a combined 69.4 PPG! They won’t be able to make up for that differential. Because of this, their game plan has to be to slow down the pace and play physical defense to keep it low scoring (they rank 7th in the NBA in scoring defense). In 6 games without Doncic this season the Mavericks average just 106.3 PPG and shoot only 41% from the field (for perspective the worst team in the NBA this season shoots 45%). On the other side of the ball, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are both listed as questionable tonight. If they do play, this could be a blowout early with the best players all sitting out. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 Mavericks games and we look for it to continue tonight. The opening line has already shifted from 230.5 down to 226.5. There is so much value here tonight!
Take Dallas vs Golden State UNDER 226.5 points for a weekend winner!