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NETS @ 76ERS
January 25, 2023
4:30 PM PST
In tonight’s NBA primetime matchup in the East we lock back in on Nets star PG Kyrie Irving. Oddsmakers have been consistent with his line since Kevin Durant went out with an injury, keeping his point total around 29.5 points. We love the over tonight simply because it is needed for the Nets to keep pace with the Sixers. Irving has scored 30, 48, and 38 in his last three games. The key: Without KD he has been averaging about 26 shot attempts/game meaning he only needs to score about 1 point/shot attempt to hit this number. On an average shooting night this should be an easy task for most NBA stars. With Joel Embiid out for Philadelphia we see Irving having more room to work on offense, including driving to the paint off the dribble. Line functionality works in our favor here: the Sixers typically guard the PG position well, allowing just 20 PPG to opponents. Yet, oddsmakers don’t budge on Irving’s line because they see his floor usage rate lately. This creates underlying value. These teams played once earlier this year where Kyrie had 23 points on 18 shot attempts. Durant played in that game and thus we could see Irving with an additional ~8 attempts getting to 30+ quite easily. Irving likes to quiet the opposing crowd, averaging 6 more PPG in road games this year. While the average bettor may side with Philadelphia’s defensive stats, we ride the hot hand here tonight - Take Kyrie Irving OVER 29.5 points for a winner!