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NUGGETS @ LAKERS
December 16, 2022
7:00 PM PST
When the Nuggets face the Lakers Friday night all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic vs Anthony Davis. These big men have been putting up mega numbers lately, but we lock in on the total points here. Oddsmakers have the Nuggets favored at -1 and the O/U at 237 points.
While many people expect an offensive surge because of production lately, the value lies in the under. Here’s why. These teams have played twice already this season with scores totaling 209 and 231 points, averaging 17 points less than tonight’s line. In their last 10 matchups this number would have hit the under at an 80% clip. Denver isn’t quite as efficient outside of Mile High – they score 4.6 less PPG on the road. While AD has been going off on offense, he has been playing undoubtedly stellar defense and will really slow down Jokic since he can play on the perimeter unlike other big men. In games where Denver comes off big outputs (125+ points), they tend to follow-up with a dud as the under is 4-0 in such games lately. The Lakers defense has been better than their ranking lately. On Tuesday night they shut down the #1 offense (Boston) for 3 quarters. Look for more tough buckets tonight than the public anticipates.
Take Nuggets vs Lakers UNDER 237 points and let’s get this weekend rolling!