Seahawks @ Lions (-3.5, 48)
October 2, 2022
1:00pm EST on CBS
Lock in for a value play when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Detroit Lions. Yes, it’s odd to see the Lions favored by 4+ points, but that leads to value within the Seahawk prop lines.
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Seahawk QB Geno Smith’s pass completions line is listed at 22.5. However, his yardage prop sits at 253.5. This is a spot to take statistical advantage. Smith ranks 30th in the NFL in yards/completion at 8.4 yards because he doesn’t go deep often. Say he completes 23 passes as the betting line assumes – he would only accumulate 193 passing yards. Because his yardage prop line is 60 yards greater, we see value playing the completions OVER as it would take many more completions to get to that yardage mark. Factor this in: Geno Smith ranks 1st in the NFL in completion percentage at 77.5%, five percent higher than anyone else. And he’s averaging 26.3 completions/game thru three games. The Lions defense has been horrible this season, allowing the 8th most passing yards/game in the NFL. Detroit has given up an average QB completion rate of 24/game. Lots to like here.
Take Geno Smith OVER 22.5 completions!