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BUCCANEERS @ 49ERS
December 11, 2022
1:25 PM PST
When the Bucs travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers Sunday afternoon, where is there value??
Look no further than one of the best all-time throwing the pigskin. QB Tom Brady has prop lines listed at O/U 24.5 completions and O/U 254.5 passing yards. Facing a Niners defense that is ranked #1 in rushing defense and the Bucs DEAD LAST ranked ground game, we feel almost all of Tampa Bay’s offense will have to be thru the air. We saw last week that Tom Brady’s O-line doesn’t give him much time and San Francisco can rush the QB so the game plan should be tons of quick passes, dump-offs, and screens. Look for him to throw the ball 40-50 times. On the season TB12 has averaged 28.9 completions/game. He’s hit this number (25+ completions) in 9 out of 12 games (75% rate) and should get plenty of opportunities today. They will look to get yards after the catch to keep drives going. San Francisco allows an opponent completion rate of 64% on the year. As mentioned last week, Tom Brady remains at the very bottom of the NFL in yards/pass attempt (meaning tons of short completions) and has averaged 27+ completions/game as a Buccaneer.
We cashed this same prop Monday night and we look to hit it again today – Take Tom Brady OVER 24.5 completions!
DOLPHINS @ CHARGERS
December 11, 2022
5:20 PM PST
Sunday Night Football will be a great offensive matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. We lock in on WR Jaylen Waddle whose player prop lines are as follows: O/U 4.5 receptions, O/U 62.5 receiving yards, and O/U 0.5 touchdowns.
On the year, the Dolphins aerial attack has been prolific, ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards/game. On the other hand, the Chargers have a very mediocre pass defense ranking 19th in the league. While Waddle struggled last week coming in and out of the game with a leg injury, he doesn’t carry an injury status coming into tonight’s game. We expect head coach Mike McDaniel to get Waddle back heavily involved in the game plan. Waddle has a 74% snap count share on the year, has averaged 7.5 targets/game, and 81 receiving yds/game. He’s surpassed 63+ yards in 9 out of 12 games, hitting this line at a 75% rate. He can easily go for 100+ in any given game (4 times already this season) and we love how much coverage attention Tyreek Hill requires in the defensive backfield. This will open things up tonight for other pass-catchers. Trust in Tua to get the ball to his main weapons tonight!
Take Jaylen Waddle OVER 62.5 receiving yards for a winner!