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November 24, 2022

BILLS @ LIONS
9:30 AM PST

GIANTS @ COWBOYS
1:30 PM PST

PATRIOTS @ VIKINGS
5:20 PM PST

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BILLS @ LIONS
9:30 AM PST

Thanksgiving prop value lies in the quarterback matchup. We turn to MVP candidate Josh Allen.

The lines on his player props are listed at O/U 23.5 completions and O/U 280.5 passing yards. On the year Allen has thrown for 293 yards/game and has hit 281+ yards 60% of the time this season. This week he’s facing an AWFUL Detroit Lions defense. They are ranked 28th in passing defense while Buffalo is a top 3 passing offense. Line functionality matters. Allen has averaged only 256 yards/game over the past 5 games. Yet, oddsmakers realize his good matchup, ability to throw for 300+ yards regularly, and the intangibles to show out during primetime on a holiday. Noteworthy: with the snow in Buffalo last week forcing the relocation to Detroit, the Bills are playing their second straight game at Ford Field so it’s not a true road game. The Bills aren’t shy about running up the score and will keep their foot on the gas offensively. National television and playing for the Galloping Gobbler award, you can count on Josh showing up big time. Take Josh Allen OVER 280.5 passing yards!

GIANTS @ COWBOYS
1:30 PM PST

1:30 PM PST Thanksgiving in Cowboy Stadium lends a great matchup with the Giants coming to town.

We look to the Giants RB Saquon Barkley and his player props: O/U 74.5 rushing yards and O/U 22.5 receiving yards. In his 2022 campaign Barkley is averaging 95.3 rushing yds/game and 21 receiving yds/game. New York’s chances in this game will be dependent on establishing the run game and controlling the clock. They will rely heavily on their star running back. Barkley averages 24 touches/game and we can expect at least that in primetime, especially after a down game last week against Detroit. While the Cowboys defense is #1 in the NFL against the pass, they struggle mightily stopping the run. They are ranked 26th in the league allowing 136 yds/game. With the Giants losing 2 of their last 3 games, they will be looking to get the ball to their most talented player. With the news of WR Wan’Dale Robinson being out for the year, QB Daniel Jones has even fewer weapons on the outside. Barkley should see some action in the passing game out of the backfield as well. He’s hit this number in 6 out of 10 games and has the potential to surpass the combo easily – Take Saquon Barkley OVER 100.5 rushing & receiving yards!

PATRIOTS @ VIKINGS
5:20 PM PST

We see great value in the Thanksgiving night game where the Vikings look to rebound after their 40-3 blowout loss on Sunday to the Cowboys.

Lock in on Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. His prop lines are listed at O/U 74.5 rushing yards and O/U 11.5 receiving yards. The line functionality and matchup speak volumes here. Cook has averaged 79.9 rushing yds/game and averaged 85.2 rushing yds/game over the last 5 games. Yet, oddsmakers have his line much lower at 74.5. They see Cook’s touches going down (just 14 carries/game over the last 3 games) and the defense they will be facing. New England is ranked 12th in rushing defense, but they have been one of the best in the NFL over the last few weeks. The Patriots have not allowed a running back to get 75+ yards on the ground since Green Bay’s Aaron Jones did 8 weeks ago. In fact, over the past 6 weeks the leading running backs for opposing teams have averaged just 40 yds/game including miserable totals of 19 yds, 23 yds, and 26 yds. Bill Belichick is known for shutting down the opposing team’s most explosive players. We expect to see Dalvin struggling to find open running lanes and the Vikings to air it out a lot after last week’s tough passing performance – Take Dalvin Cook UNDER 74.5 rushing yards!